Assumptions on parcel delivery drones: Difference between revisions
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=Assumptions= | =Assumptions= | ||
==Drone assumptions== | |||
1) | 1) The maximum weight of a package will be around 5lbs / 2.5 kg, which is a little less than 10% of its own weight. This is based on the citation of Amazon, stating that the delivery drones will be able to carry up to 5 pounds. Amazon also states that the majorty of sold articles weigh less than five pounds. [http://time.com/4185117/amazon-prime-air-drone-delivery/] | ||
2) The maximum distance a delivery drone can cover is assumed to be 32 km on full battery, resulting in a | 2) The maximum distance a delivery drone can cover is assumed to be 32 km on full battery, resulting in a flying radius of 16 km since it still has to be able to return to its deployment point. This assumption is based on research in scientific articles in which most articles proposes maximum distances between 16 – 23 km (10-15 miles) on full battery. Since 16 km appeared most the times and it is the minimum distance it can cover and therefor has the smallest chance of creating false information, we chose 16 km as our maximum radius. [http://time.com/4185117/amazon-prime-air-drone-delivery/][https://www.pocket-lint.com/drones/news/amazon/139746-how-does-amazon-prime-air-work-and-where-is-drone-delivery-available][https://www.marketwatch.com/story/6-myths-about-amazon-prime-air-and-drone-delivery-debunked-2015-12-02] | ||
3) | 3) The maximum speed a fully loaded delivery drone can reach is up to 80 km/h. This is based on the maximum speed a delivery drone from amazon can reach within its battery capacity. However, to be able to use the speed within the research, it was chosen to take 60 km/h as delivery speed, since it can’t fly at maximum speed on average. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Prime_Air][https://www.pocket-lint.com/drones/news/amazon/139746-how-does-amazon-prime-air-work-and-where-is-drone-delivery-available] | ||
4) | 4) The charging time of the battery is expected to be about 30 min. This charging time is used for wireless charging pads and for indoor charging stations, which are seen as one in the project. This pad deliver about 20Ah. With a battery use of 8000 - 9000 mAh this results into half an hour of charging time. [[https://dronelife.com/2018/02/11/skysense-drone-charging-infrastructure/]][[http://www.csgnetwork.com/batterychgcalc.html]] | ||
5)It is | 5) It is possible for the drones to use recharge pads placed on frequent urban objects like lanterns or chimes of houses [[https://www.popsci.com/amazon-patent-puts-drones-on-streetlight-recharging-stations]] | ||
6) Each drone will cost about €3500 ($4000). According to our research an average cost for an autonomous delivery drone will be around $3000 - $5000. Taking it half way ends up at $4000, equal to €3500. [[https://www.nanalyze.com/2015/12/matternet-delivery-drones-that-are-delivering-now/]] [[https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2015/05/heres-how-one-startup-plans-to-dominate-drone-based-delivery-2/]] | 6) Each drone will cost about €3500 ($4000). According to our research an average cost for an autonomous delivery drone will be around $3000 - $5000. Taking it half way ends up at $4000, equal to €3500. [[https://www.nanalyze.com/2015/12/matternet-delivery-drones-that-are-delivering-now/]] [[https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2015/05/heres-how-one-startup-plans-to-dominate-drone-based-delivery-2/]] | ||
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8) The drones will be able to work 24 hours a day | 8) The drones will be able to work 24 hours a day | ||
==Delivery assumptions== | |||
1)It is assumed there is an order of 172.000 packages a day. The amount of packages a company like Bol.com processes is approximately 200 000 orders per day [[https://twinklemagazine.nl/2014/12/bol.com-dankt-tienduizend-orders-per-dag-aan-partners/index.xml]]. This includes all packages, keeping in mind that Bol.com even has orders like dishwashers. It is should be said that 86% of Amazone's orders are packages under 2.5 kg[[http://www.businessinsider.com/delivery-fee-for-amazon-prime-air-2015-4?international=true&r=US&IR=T]]. Since both company's work in the same branch and both have a similar status, we think that the 86% is applicable to Bol.com. With that the assumption is that there are 172000 orders a day that can be assigned to Drones. | |||
2)For a Parcel delivery by drone Bol.com will approximately ask for 1 euro per delivery[http://www.businessinsider.com/delivery-fee-for-amazon-prime-air-2015-4?international=true&r=US&IR=T] | |||
3) In the whole delivery process, setting up the parcels to the point where the drones leave the distribution centre is accounted for in the calculated delivery time. | |||
4) In the delivery centre the whole process of getting the parcels from the shelves to the drone will be automated, so no employees are needed. This can be applied for battery changing as well. | |||
Revision as of 12:59, 4 April 2018
To return to the main page: PRE2017_3_Groep10
Assumptions
Drone assumptions
1) The maximum weight of a package will be around 5lbs / 2.5 kg, which is a little less than 10% of its own weight. This is based on the citation of Amazon, stating that the delivery drones will be able to carry up to 5 pounds. Amazon also states that the majorty of sold articles weigh less than five pounds. [1]
2) The maximum distance a delivery drone can cover is assumed to be 32 km on full battery, resulting in a flying radius of 16 km since it still has to be able to return to its deployment point. This assumption is based on research in scientific articles in which most articles proposes maximum distances between 16 – 23 km (10-15 miles) on full battery. Since 16 km appeared most the times and it is the minimum distance it can cover and therefor has the smallest chance of creating false information, we chose 16 km as our maximum radius. [2][3][4]
3) The maximum speed a fully loaded delivery drone can reach is up to 80 km/h. This is based on the maximum speed a delivery drone from amazon can reach within its battery capacity. However, to be able to use the speed within the research, it was chosen to take 60 km/h as delivery speed, since it can’t fly at maximum speed on average. [5][6]
4) The charging time of the battery is expected to be about 30 min. This charging time is used for wireless charging pads and for indoor charging stations, which are seen as one in the project. This pad deliver about 20Ah. With a battery use of 8000 - 9000 mAh this results into half an hour of charging time. [[7]][[8]]
5) It is possible for the drones to use recharge pads placed on frequent urban objects like lanterns or chimes of houses [[9]]
6) Each drone will cost about €3500 ($4000). According to our research an average cost for an autonomous delivery drone will be around $3000 - $5000. Taking it half way ends up at $4000, equal to €3500. [[10]] [[11]]
7) Although there are regions a drone is not allowed to fly (no-flight-zones), we assume we don't encounter one.
8) The drones will be able to work 24 hours a day
Delivery assumptions
1)It is assumed there is an order of 172.000 packages a day. The amount of packages a company like Bol.com processes is approximately 200 000 orders per day [[12]]. This includes all packages, keeping in mind that Bol.com even has orders like dishwashers. It is should be said that 86% of Amazone's orders are packages under 2.5 kg[[13]]. Since both company's work in the same branch and both have a similar status, we think that the 86% is applicable to Bol.com. With that the assumption is that there are 172000 orders a day that can be assigned to Drones.
2)For a Parcel delivery by drone Bol.com will approximately ask for 1 euro per delivery[14]
3) In the whole delivery process, setting up the parcels to the point where the drones leave the distribution centre is accounted for in the calculated delivery time.
4) In the delivery centre the whole process of getting the parcels from the shelves to the drone will be automated, so no employees are needed. This can be applied for battery changing as well.